Understanding workforce trends is vital for every healthcare provider. In 2025, challenges across the NHS (UK), HSE (Ireland) and private sectors are converging, driven by global shortages, aging populations, digital transformation and rising patient expectations. Here’s what each sector must know.
1. The Global Backdrop: An 11‑Million Shortage by 2030
The World Health Organisation (WHO) projects a global shortfall of 11 million healthcare workers by 2030, predominantly in low and middle income countries. Deloitte reported that 80% of healthcare executives foresaw staffing difficulties in 2025, emphasising the urgent need to prioritise retention and engagement.
These global trends flow into the UK and Irish systems, highlighting the importance of proactive workforce planning, investment in training and better retention strategies.
2. UK’s NHS: Ambitious Growth, Deepening Gaps
Staffing Numbers Today
- As of March 2025, the NHS England employed 1,544,417 staff (headcount), a 2.5% annual increase. That equals 1,378,470 full‑time equivalent (FTE) roles.
- Clinically qualified staff: doctors, nurses, midwives, ambulance personnel make up 53.9% of all FTEs: 742,792 FTE, marking a 4.5% rise year‑on‑year.
- Doctor staffing is up significantly. Secondary care saw a 41% increase in FTE doctors since 2015, with over 43,000 more FTE doctors as of March 2025.
Supply Versus Demand: The Forecast
Despite gains, the NHS faces a looming crisis. Its Long‑Term Workforce Plan warns of a 260,000 to 360,000 FTE shortfall by 2036/37 unless urgent action is taken. The Health Foundation’s analysis suggests 314,000 more staff will be required over the next decade to maintain current services.
If demand is met, the NHS workforce could grow to 2.3–2.4 million, meaning 1 in 11 workers in England would be NHS‑employed, a big leap from the current 1 in 17.
Financial Impacts
NHS payroll is ballooning from £71 billion to a projected £120 billion by 2036‑37. Yet this spending crunch coincides with calls to reform pensions, reallocate resources into social care and improve wage competitiveness, especially for frontline and lower‑paid staff.
International Recruitment: A Tipping Point
Currently, 34.9% of NHS doctors are internationally trained, with 7.8% from the EEA and only 57.2% UK‑trained. But the UK government’s new plan aims to cut reliance on overseas healthcare workers to under 10% of new hires by 2035.
This shift is intended to tackle ethical concerns, reduce care-worker migration from poorer countries and ensure better value-for-money, but may exacerbate domestic training and retention gaps.
Workforce Planning & Tools
- The NHS Long‑Term Workforce Plan is now iterative, regularly updated to match new data, stakeholder feedback and changing policy.
- Digital tools like HealthRoster (e‑rostering used by over 80% of trusts) help planners schedule staff efficiently.
- NHS Professionals (a government company) manages 4.6 million bank-shifts and 39 million hours of care annually – a crucial buffer during shortages.
What NHS Providers Should Do
- Scale training programs: Boost medical school and nursing slots, expand apprenticeships (over 20,000 in 2023)
- Retain talent: Improve pay, reduce burnout, support flexible working and reform pension structures.
- Embrace tech: Deploy AI recruitment tools (e.g. UHB reducing hire time by 30%)
- Strengthen data-led planning, aligning workforce supply with service demand.
- Ethical recruitment: Look at overseas hiring in line with global workforce priorities and domestic capacity.
3. HSE (Ireland): Similar Trends, Local Nuances
Though Ireland’s HSE data is not as easily available, it faces similar pressures:
- Growing clinical demand from an aging population.
- Healthcare worker emigration and burnout.
- Financial constraints and training pipeline limitations.
To address this, HSE leaders are investing in nurse‑bank systems, expanding clinical education places and integrating healthcare assistants into care models. Collaborative workforce planning with universities and regulatory reforms (allowing broader roles for advanced practitioners) is ongoing. As the workforce stress mirrors the UK, mutual learnings between HSE and the NHS could be very useful.
4. Private Providers: Expanding Amid Capacity Constraints
The private sector is taking on greater responsibility, particularly where public systems struggle.
- Independent providers handle around 10% of all NHS-funded elective care, up from 8% pre‑pandemic.
- In 2024, they delivered 5.3 million care “episodes”, 50% more than in 2021.
- They have efficiently removed 1.5 million patients from NHS waiting lists in just 11 months.
The UK private acute market is valued at nearly £1.5 billion, with projected growth to £13.8 billion by 2023. Many private providers also staff NHS services including independent sector treatment centres, GP practices and mental-health facilities.
What Private Providers Must Focus On
- Maintain quality: Independent Healthcare Providers Network market the fact that only 0.12% of private admissions require emergency transfer to the NHS which is a strong credential.
- Build NHS partnerships: Offering capacity fast and predictably, especially for elective surgery and diagnostics.
- Attract workforce: Positioning better work-life balance and compensation than strained public settings.
- Differentiate services: Emphasise digital health, patient experience and niche specialties.
5. Common Themes: Strategies Ahead for 2025
1. Workforce Forecasting
- NHS’s long-term model and Health Foundation forecasts point to massive future gaps. Ireland needs similar data to guide intake and training.
- Private firms must forecast demand, invest in training or partnerships and ensure future staff pipelines.
2. Training & Upskilling
- Scale medical, nursing, allied health training across public & private sectors.
- Embrace apprenticeships, reskilling, digital literacy and retention programs, particularly for nurses and allied staff.
3. Retention and Well-Being
- Burnout is a pressing issue globally. South Korea saw 12,000 junior doctor strikes in 2024; more than 1.5 million NHS appointments were cancelled due to English medical strikes.
- Strategies must include mental health support, flexible shifts, financial incentives and career pathways.
4. Tech-enhanced Workforce Management
- The NHS uses digital rostering and AI in hiring. The HSE can adopt similar tools.
- Private providers should invest in e‑rostering, remote monitoring and interoperable systems to maximise efficiency.
5. Ethical International Recruitment
- The NHS is pivoting to reduce overseas hires to under 10% of new recruiting by 2035.This could be a mistake when demand is increasing.
- The HSE and private entities should align with ethical recruitment standards to avoid destabilising less-resourced systems.
6. Integrated Public‑Private Collaboration
- Private providers already deliver around 10% of NHS elective work.
- Formalised partnerships, clinical networks, provider collaboratives and training hubs can support NHS and HSE systems in crisis moments.
6. Action Roadmap for 2025 and Beyond
| Provider Type | Immediate Focus | Strategic Goals |
| NHS England | Scale domestic training, pension reforms | Achieve self-sufficiency by 2035, close 360k FTE gap |
| HSE (Ireland) | Build clinician pipeline, expand digital roles | Forecasting model, upskilling, retention |
| Private Sector | Expand safe elective capacity, attract staff | Form integrated workforce partnerships, invest in quality |
7. Conclusion
The 2025‑2030 horizon presents a healthcare workforce crisis and with crisis there’s opportunity. Public systems like the NHS and HSE must urgently align planning with demand, expand training, enhance retention and invest in technology. Private providers are stepping into demand gaps, offering choice, innovation and relief but quality and ethical standards remain central.
With collaborative, cross‑sectoral effort grounded in data and directed toward sustainable workforce models, the UK and Ireland’s healthcare systems can not just weather the storm, but emerge stronger, more resilient and better equipped to care for future generations.
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